A page of sixteen years turns in Germany.Sunday, September 26, 60.4 million Germans and Germans are called to the polls for the country's federal elections, which take place every four years across the Rhine.This ballot will not only renew the Bundestag, the lower room of the Parliament, but also the Chancellery, the high place of the executive held for 2005 by Angela Merkel.Franceinfo explains the challenges and the functioning of these elections, capital for the future of Germany and Europe.
What is the issue of these elections in Germany?
This federal ballot is always an important step in German political life, because it can redraw the lower room of Parliament.Currently, the Bundestag has 709sieges, of which 245 are occupied by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), political formation of Angela Merkel, and by its "little sister", the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU).Next comes the other great German political force, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), with 152-sieges, then the formation of the extreme right alternative for Germany (AFD), with 87 sièges.Three other parliamentary groups also place their place in the hemicycle: the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP), the La Gauche Party (Die Linke) as well as the Greens-Alliance90.
Particularity of this year: the one who embodies German executive deputy.Angela Merkel leaves the Chancellery, and these elections will determine who will replace her at the head of the first European economy.
Who could replace Angela Merkel?
The uncertainty at a time when the two traditional forces forming the "great coalition" to the government, the CDU-CSU and the SPD, are losing momentum."For the first time, we don't really have strong political parties.And we have no outing, "continues Thomas Gschwend, professor of political science at the University of Mannheim (Germany).
Three main candidates emerged during this campaign: Armin Laschet for the CDU-CSU, Olaf Scholz for the Social Democratic Party and Annalena Baerbock, the Greens candidate.
On the right, Armin Laschet, 60, is the federal president of the CDU since January.Former European deputy (pro) and minister, the one who grew up near Aix-la-Chapelle is today Minister-President of the Land of Rhineland-Du-Nord-Westphalia, the most populous federated state in Germany.
To his left for the SPD, Olaf Scholz, Vice-Chancellor of Germany and current Minister of Finance of Angela Merkel.At 63 years old, this former student in labor law and member of young socialists also has a political career fleshed out behind him, from the Bundestag to the town hall of Hamburg.It represents the right wing of the social democratic party.
Annalena Baerbock was born in 1980, the year of birth of her political party, underlines the BBC*.Lulled to anti-nuclear demonstrations, she studied law and politics before joining the Greens in the European Parliament.The environmental candidate has been a member of Parliament for the Bundestag since 2013.
And these candidates, what do they offer?
The CDU of Armin Laschet notably proposes to reduce the taxation of low and moderate income, while refusing to reintrodure a wealth tax.It undertakes to achieve carbon neutrality in 2045, specifies the Institut for contemporary German studies of Johns-Hopkins*University in the United States.
Olaf Scholz, of the SPD, advocates this same deadline for carbon neutrality, but also the increase in the minimum wage to 12 euros an hour, as well as easy access to housing at moderate prices.
The Greens' candidate, Annalena Baerbock, wishes a climate protection program started without delay, a systematic assessment of the sustainability of investments, as well as a law ensuring equality between women and men.
By the way, how do we vote in Germany?
On September 26, the Germans will not have one, but two boxes to check on their ballot.They will first vote, in their constituency, for a candidate or a candidate for the Bundestag (the equivalent of a French deputy).This first voting is a majority in a turn: the one who wins is guaranteed to have a seat in Parliament.This is how 299 deputies - for 299criptions - are elected.
The other part of the Bundestag is designated thanks to the second vote, this time proportional, during which the Germans choose a political party.The remaining seats are assigned according to the percentages carried out by each formation - on the condition of obtaining at least 5% of the votes.
This two-voting system is "the heritage of the failure of the Weimar Republic, we wanted to set up safeguards", underlines Elisa Goudin, Lecture of Contemporary Civilization in the Department of Germanic Studies of the'University Paris 3."This is the idea of a balanced vote, both the stability of the uninominal election to identify clear majorities and the representativeness of the proportional", develops researcher Paul Maurice, of the Franco-German Relations Studies Committee'French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
In the event that a party obtains more seats that it should, due to the first vote, a compensatory system then increases the number of seats in the Bundestag (in principle of 598) for the other parties.
Why do we wait to wait to know the name of the future chancellor?
After the election, comes a time or shorter of negotiations for the formation of a coalition.On the evening of September 26, "we will know which percentage are the three main parties, we will know who is in the lead", but the future coalition will remain unknown, sums up Elisa Goudin.
How long will these negotiations between parties take to obtain a coalition? "Who knows!" Says Nils Diederich, himself a former social democratic deputy from 1976 to 1994."For the first time, neither the Social Democrats nor the Christians-Democrats can form a coalition in two political forces" and having a majority, underlines the political scientist.Even the "Grande Coalition" would obtain less than 50% of the seats, according to the projections of Politico*.A coalition bringing together three forces (and four parties therefore, taking into account the CSU) seems the most likely outcome.
"I'm not even sure that we will have a government at Christmas," judgethomas Gschwend.Following the previous elections in 2017, the new government had been trained...In March 2018, after the failure of negotiations between the CDU, the Greens and the FDP.
And what could be the possible coalitions?
In the event that the SPD is maintained at the head of the evening - it currently collects 25% of the voting intentions, according to politico* - "he [u would] two great possibilities", explains Paul Maurice: a coalition with the Greens and theliberal democrats (respectively 16% and 11% of voting intentions), or a more marked government on the left, with environmentalists and the Die Linke party.Another option: the renewal of a large coalition with the CDU, accompanied by a third party like the Greens."Olaf Scholz did not close these different scenarios," notes the IFRI researcher.
The CDU, currently second with 22% of the voting intentions, "will try to form a coalition in the colors of Jamaica", that is to say with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, imagines Thomaschwend.These two teams, whatever happens, promise to be decisive in the negotiations.
How did the campaign go?
During spring, the campaign was marked by a significant push of the Greens, passed from 19% to 25% of the voting intentions between early March and early May, to the point of exceeding the CDU.The environmental candidate, Annalena Baerbock, however suffered afterwards, accused of having imprecisions (even errors) on her CV then having plagiarized several extracts for her book.For Thomaschwend, "she could have been an excellent candidate if she had had professionals to manage her campaign".
Armin Laschet, who left 36% at the start of the year, had the advantage of being part of Angela Merkel's logical suite.But he failed to convince, estimates the political scientist.The leader of the CDU has suffered from his blunders, like this full visit to a city ravaged by the floods."He does not have a strong theme, he changes his mind, as on the reception of refugees or the covid-19", continues Elisa Goudin, adding that he is "very different" by Angela Merkel.Finally, "it is almost the social democrat who appears as his successor".
This is the card that Olaf Scholz plays, whose party has been significantly up in the polls since the end of July."People have started to consider Scholz as the one we can trust the most, the one that is closest to Merkel.The SPD said that there was an opportunity there, "analyzes Thomas Gschwend.
And if not, what will we remember from Angela Merkel's assessment?
Already, its longevity!In sixteen years, Angela Merkel has known no less than four French presidents.The German Chancellor is also known for several major decisions, such as her choice to get Germany out of nuclear, only two months after the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011 in 2011.We will also remember her policy of receiving refugees in 2015, with this sentence launched to all of Germany: "Wir Schaffen Das" ("We will get there").
Others will keep his great firmness in mind with regard to Greece in 2012, in a context of the crisis of her public debt.The German Chancellor refused the option of a cancellation of this debt, calling for an austerity plan.
I didn't have time to read everything, do you summarize me?
Sunday, September 26, the German federal elections, which will renew the lower room of Parliament, the Bundestag, the equivalent of the French Assembly, take place..This ballot will also determine who will replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor.But above all, it is from this ballot that will result in the formation of the future coalition which will govern the fourth world economic power.Negotiations, which will start upon formalization of the results, promise to be long, the two main political parties - the CDU and the SPD - not getting a majority of them.A coalition of three political forces is looming the most likely.
*All of these links refer to pages or articles in English.
